Causal Layered Analysis

Having looked at Scenario Planning , I stumbled upon this interesting method while looking for ways to develop the scenarios based on which the managers take decisions.

Causal Layered analysis is a technique drawn from poststructuralism, Tantric epistemology and futures studies which is used as a means to look into the causes of social phenomena and use the results to construct useful forecasted scenarios. The technique is based on the premise that the way one frames a problem changes the probable solution to the problem and the actors responsible for bringing about the change and hence the structural understanding of the problem is the most important part of any planning exercise.

The CLA ( Causal Layered Analysis) technique basically conducts a vertical analysis cutting across different layers of understanding of an issue and a set of horizontal analyses on each of the layers . The layers of understanding that we look at are :


a. Litany : Easily verifiable statements which state the generally accepted view of the issue . e.g. “Global Oil shortage is likely in the near future .“

b. Social Causes : This layer examines the systemic perspective , highlighting the actors and their systemic linkages. e.g. “Governments of the world should shift from Oil to renewable sources of energy by regulating use of oil. “

c. Discourse / Worldview : Deeper unconsciously held ideological views which take a revised look at the overall picture , opposing assumptions made in the first two levels . e.g “ We need a oil allocation system based only of justifiable need and not on capitalism.”

d. Myth and Metaphor : Old Folk stories , Sayings of people solving such problem of such nature thrown at them by the environment.

The procedure that CLA follows is as follows :

a. The Vertical Analysis : This step uncovers the underlying system behind the issue by asking question after question at each consecutive level in order to lead the discussion towards uncovering the underlying system.

b. The Horizontal Analysis : This is usually done at the Social Causes and the Worldview layers in order to get more views of the same at those levels. At the Social Causes layer , Social, Technical, Environmental, Economic and Political perspectives could be looked at to get a more holistic view.

c. Re-envisioning the Myth and the Metaphor : Comparison of the underlying myths that cover the issue and contrasting them with the utopian thoughts of the future as thought of , by the group to come up with a re-casted story.

d.Recasting Issue and Solutions : Starting from the re-casted story , going up throught the layers to re-cast the issue at each level.

e.Selecting and Documenting Solutions at each level

The advantages of CLA are :

a. Scenarios developed are much richer in nature.
b. Incorporation of the views of the diverse participants in the solution.
c. Gives solutions at various levels of implementation
d. Brings deeper issues surrounding the system to light.

'This document is the result of my independent work. All sources of information used in the document have been duly acknowledged in the references.'

References:

[1] Causal Layered Analysis , retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_Layered_Analysis
[2] Research on Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://www.metafuture.org/causal-layered-analysis-papers.html
[3] Causal Layered Analysis , retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm
[4] Causal Layered Analysis , retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://www.scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html