Causal Layered Analysis

Having looked at Scenario Planning , I stumbled upon this interesting method while looking for ways to develop the scenarios based on which the managers take decisions.

Causal Layered analysis is a technique drawn from poststructuralism, Tantric epistemology and futures studies which is used as a means to look into the causes of social phenomena and use the results to construct useful forecasted scenarios. The technique is based on the premise that the way one frames a problem changes the probable solution to the problem and the actors responsible for bringing about the change and hence the structural understanding of the problem is the most important part of any planning exercise.

The CLA ( Causal Layered Analysis) technique basically conducts a vertical analysis cutting across different layers of understanding of an issue and a set of horizontal analyses on each of the layers . The layers of understanding that we look at are :


a. Litany : Easily verifiable statements which state the generally accepted view of the issue . e.g. “Global Oil shortage is likely in the near future .“

b. Social Causes : This layer examines the systemic perspective , highlighting the actors and their systemic linkages. e.g. “Governments of the world should shift from Oil to renewable sources of energy by regulating use of oil. “

c. Discourse / Worldview : Deeper unconsciously held ideological views which take a revised look at the overall picture , opposing assumptions made in the first two levels . e.g “ We need a oil allocation system based only of justifiable need and not on capitalism.”

d. Myth and Metaphor : Old Folk stories , Sayings of people solving such problem of such nature thrown at them by the environment.

The procedure that CLA follows is as follows :

a. The Vertical Analysis : This step uncovers the underlying system behind the issue by asking question after question at each consecutive level in order to lead the discussion towards uncovering the underlying system.

b. The Horizontal Analysis : This is usually done at the Social Causes and the Worldview layers in order to get more views of the same at those levels. At the Social Causes layer , Social, Technical, Environmental, Economic and Political perspectives could be looked at to get a more holistic view.

c. Re-envisioning the Myth and the Metaphor : Comparison of the underlying myths that cover the issue and contrasting them with the utopian thoughts of the future as thought of , by the group to come up with a re-casted story.

d.Recasting Issue and Solutions : Starting from the re-casted story , going up throught the layers to re-cast the issue at each level.

e.Selecting and Documenting Solutions at each level

The advantages of CLA are :

a. Scenarios developed are much richer in nature.
b. Incorporation of the views of the diverse participants in the solution.
c. Gives solutions at various levels of implementation
d. Brings deeper issues surrounding the system to light.

'This document is the result of my independent work. All sources of information used in the document have been duly acknowledged in the references.'

References:

[1] Causal Layered Analysis , retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_Layered_Analysis
[2] Research on Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://www.metafuture.org/causal-layered-analysis-papers.html
[3] Causal Layered Analysis , retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm
[4] Causal Layered Analysis , retrieved on 8/09/08 from http://www.scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html

Scenario Planning

“ For tomorrow belongs to those who prepare for it today.” – old African Saying

The future is something that is in most cases uncertain . Managers in today’s world are expected to be able to see through the uncertainties and then take the best possible decision for the business. So , in a certain way the modern day manager is expected to act as an oracle in today’s fast changing world. So, how does a manager on whose decision , a thousand livelihoods depend , decide with such surety that the decision taken is the right one and that the business will thrive , no matter what the future brings ?

Scenario planning is one among the futures frameworks which help managers in taking those critical decisions , by giving them some insight into what the future might hold for them and the economy as a whole. It is impossible to predict the future, but based upon what we know today, scenarios can help depict plausible possibilities for the future. Unlike other planning exercises which are limited to the boardroom or to company officials , scenario planning as a methodology is being adopted by communities as a whole in order to take a peek into their futures and to help decision-makers use these scenarios as a guideline when taking decisions.

Scenarios are powerful planning tools that are neither predictions nor strategies but are hypotheses of different futures which are specifically designed to highlight certain risks and opportunities which could affect the business. The typical scenario planning methodology would be on the following lines :

a) Put together a team of stakeholders and domain experts with varied interests , so as to bring depth of knowledge of the industry as well as of the general environment into the scenario.

b) Since we are trying to understand the various futures possible , the team tries to pin down the various forces that drive the world and important factors that indicate the state of the world as such. The factors and forces could typically be classified under

a. Social Dynamics

b. Economic Issues

c. Political Issues

d. Technological Issues

c) The team discusses the various ways that each of these forces can behave in and various forms that these factors can take .

d) The behavior of these forces and factors is then assimilated into a fixed number of scenarios as pre-decided and fleshed out into a imaginable future.

Before taking any decision , managers play out the after-effects of each alternative of that decision in every scenario designed , so as to take a more informed decision which will work out favorably in most cases. The following diagram shows us where the scenario development fits into the overall planning process.

Figure 1 . Strategic Planning Process (Source : Strategicframing)

The scenarios also help the managers to have what is called in industry lingo “ a memory of the future “ , which basically means that when a manager spots a change in one of the driving forces in the present , he can expect the present to be veering a bit towards the corresponding scenario and adjust his future plans accordingly.

One of the observed drawbacks in a scenario planing process might be the gap in understanding between the user of the scenarios and the team which actually designed the scenarios.

'This document is the result of my independent work. All sources of information used in the document have been duly acknowledged in the references.'

References :

[1] Eaves, Elisabeth , "The Futurists " , Retrieved 07/09/08 from http://www.forbes.com/2007/10/13/futurist-business-consultant-tech-future07-cx_ee_1015futurist.html
[2] Yacoob Abba Omar , "Thinking creatively about a world yet to unfold" , Retrieved 07/09/08 from http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A837266
[3] "Scenarios can help prepare businesses for times of change" , Retrieved 07/09/08 from http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/help-advice/business-clinic/scenarios-can-help-prepare-businesses-for-times-of-change-13948854.html
[4] Wilkinson , Lawrence , "How to build scenarios" , Retrieved 07/09/08 from http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html
[5] QJ Wang, Leon Soste, David Robertson, Selina Handley and Robert Chaffe , "Scenario planning for irrigation futures of the Goulburn Broken Region" , Retrieved 07/09/08 from http://www.regional.org.au/au/apen/2006/refereed/1/3035_wangqj.htm
[6]Scenario Planning Peer Workshop , Retrieved 07/09/08 from http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenplan/ncscenplanrpt.htm